Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Are we there yet?

I'm wondering if anyone is still reading this blog? I gave up on it after a year, so it wouldn't surprise me if everyone else gave up as well!!

I did some analysis for Derek to let him know what the current situation is... and let me just say that nothing is written in stone. It changes every month. BUT, based on what the Chinese govt is doing right now, we can figure out when we would get our referral if that continued.

So, the new rumor is out that referrals for March (let's call it March/April since it's now April the 1st) are for 2 days- March 7th and March 8th LIDs. Now at first that sounds discouraging. But we must look at how many families are logged in on those two days. March 7th is huge- according to the Rumor Queen polls, it's the largest Log in Date for 2006 to present. So that being said, if they get through the 7th and the 8th, there is reason for some celebration.
If they get through the 8th and continue at that same rate, I believe we will get our referral at the end of July/beginning of August. I do think there is going to be a speed up. The question is, is it going to happen before or after we get our referral?

My reasons for thinking a speed up is in the works have merit. The orphanage donation increased on January 1st from $3000 to over $5000. This increase is meant to not only cover the rising costs associated with caring for our children from the time they are received until they are put in our hands, but to also bring the donation in line so that it is no longer more profitable for the orphanages to hold on to their children. (If this is all it took, why didn't they do it 3 years ago?) But I digress...

Children who are placed for international adoption in China must be legally declared an orphan. To do this, a finding ad must be placed in a local paper and no one must come forward to claim the child for 6 months. The orphanage directors do not place ads for babies unless they are destined for IA. So, if the fee increase went into effect in January, and this increase encouraged the directors to make more children available for IA, then it stands to reason that if they started placing more finding ads in January, then we should see more babies being referred starting in July or August or September. The ad is only one part of the process. The directors must fill out a lot of paperwork for each child being adopted, much like the stacks of paperwork we had to fill out. These things take time, but I am optimistic that we will start seeing more families being matched later this year.

I would love to be matched at the end of June and travel in August to get our child, but I'm afraid it may be that we are matched at the end of July and travel in early September. At least by going in the hottest months of the year, we'll have more room in our suitcases because all we'll be wearing is shorts!


A New Beginning said...

And just so you know, yes, I am still reading!!

Jay and Kelly said...

Hi there! I found your site through the china adoption blog. Just want to say hi and we have a LID of 3.27.06 as well. We are so ready for this to happen.
Kelly and Jay Hurst

Jay and Kelly said...

Hi Suzanne -
It could be possible that we could be traveling at the same time and cross paths somewhere in China. We are using CCAI out of Colorado. Finally letting myself get excited since we are on the downhill slide.

- Kelly